Ten years after the UK embarked on a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a warning emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Authorities and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar could occur with a national vote on a unified Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two leading commentators from each side of the Irish border who have teamed up to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to create a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Ill-Equipped
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are extremely unready for a potentially contentious and monumental public vote.
"The lesson of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the institutional structure of our islands remains highly fragile."
Released Volume Intends to Provoke Discussion
The pair have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any governmental shift in a book, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the issue with a roadshow of speaking events that will bring them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everybody, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated the analyst.
"We should prevent a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose results have not been spelled out because then you find yourself with an highly divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."
Constitutional Provision
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland secretary of state is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say that moment is approaching, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but both governments and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear when or if there will be a national vote.
Absence of Substantive Discussion
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said McBride.
"Many are for or against the concept but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it is mostly absent. A lot has gone on in academia but scarcely any government figures or campaigners want to engage with the essentials. As an example, what sort of state would you want? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author advocates unity or the current situation. Both composes two essays that strive for impartiality in presenting the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and societal statistics, previous instances and constitutional models.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, retirement funds, sovereign debt obligations and the threat of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"There's huge interest in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Dialogue implies an recognition of the idea that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate say they support unity but refuse increased taxation or introducing a alternative symbol to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government should work out what the plan from pro-unification movements is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we love you'," said the commentator.
Possibility of Referendum
The journalist thinks a referendum in his lifetime is likely and that it might occur suddenly. "There might be just a mad or a poor or a feckless government minister who declares: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid perspectives, he said. "One side will prevail here and somebody will eventually not succeed but all factions has got important lessons to learn from the opposing positions."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster should engage with the dialogue, stated O’Toole. "This involves your state. It is a British issue equally as it is an Irish issue."
