Starmer's Allies Initiate 'Block Andy Burnham' Drive to Thwart Mayor's Commons Return
Key supporters of Labour leader Keir Starmer have reportedly set in motion a concerted effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Greater Manchester Mayor, from making a comeback to parliament. This action comes after the stepping down of a Manchester MP, which has prompted an upcoming by-election.
Serious Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Process
Multiple members on the Labour Party's powerful NEC have reportedly suggested it would be virtually impossible for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the selection process. This is largely due to the significant presence of Starmer loyalists on the committee who are desperate to avert any future leadership challenge.
The party apparatus reportedly mobilised following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and political risk of a subsequent election for mayor in Greater Manchester.
The Mayor's Aspirations and Party Concerns
Andy Burnham has been open about his national ambitions. Previously, he caused consternation in Downing Street and among cabinet ministers when he remarked that numerous MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.
It has long been believed that he is aiming for a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the Labour leadership should a challenge to Sir Keir arise. Nevertheless, supporters of the Mayor have cautioned against overstating the extent of any scheming, stating he is passionate about his job as mayor and would solely re-enter national politics if he felt he had something to contribute.
"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.
Political Landscape and Public Approval
Against a backdrop of opinion polls suggesting Sir Keir is unpopular and many MPs despondent about Labour's prospects at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham stands out as the sole senior Labour figure with favourable public approval ratings.
Should Mr. Burnham decide to run, multiple hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be approved by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then secure victory in the byelection against competition from Reform and independent candidates, all prior to any potential bid for the leadership.
The 'Stop Andy' Campaign
High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" operation is already in progress, with the party machinery being closely managed by key allies of the Prime Minister.
The Prime Minister himself commented that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and told his MPs to cease discussion of potential contests for the leadership.
Andy Burnham, commenting before the MP's resignation was confirmed, said to journalists: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."
Financial and Political Dangers
Figures on the committee have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the significant expense of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could redirect around £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.
"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," a figure stated.
A number of sources also expressed fears about Reform UK potentially fill any vacancy created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major political win for them.
Union Influence and Procedural Fears
Being an elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's approval to run. There is also speculation the committee could impose an women-only shortlist to block his nomination.
Yet, a supporter counselled against presuming the NEC would simply block his candidacy, even though Sir Keir's team is largely believed to dominate it.
The trade unions hold a significant proportion of seats on the NEC. While the largest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be opposed to anything seen as meddling from Downing Street.
The general secretary of the Fire Brigades Union said: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."
By-election Battle
The seat in question has a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform UK is expected to mount a strong campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour believes it is on stronger footing in the larger Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.
Should Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a requirement that is far from certain given he is regarded with caution by a number of on the parliamentary party.
The resigning MP stated he was resigning due to declining mental health, which had made it impossible for him to carry on in his role. He is also under a parliamentary standards investigation concerning his membership in an inappropriate online group.
