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Ordinarily, the NFL's Coach of the Year award follows a simple script. It often acts as a type of apology. Sorry we got wrong your franchise in our pre-campaign projections.

Theoretically, it's a direct line: the coach who engineered the most dramatic resurgence receives the prize. In practice, it fuels an annual discussion about expectations and whether we're actually rewarding excellent leadership or just the biggest shock.

However this year's field is fundamentally unique. The pool of candidates is remarkably deep. It has been the season of resurgences. The league has been chaotic, with reigning division winners fading and recent also-rans ascending collectively. During an typical year, Sean Payton leading the his team to the summit of the AFC would make him the overwhelming front-runner. Yet in this chaotic and thrilling season, he's up against multiple other exceptional coaches.

This is how the projected ballot could be structured.

5) Ben Johnson, Chicago Bears, Their Record

Voters for Coach of the Year selectors love quarterbacks. They always have. A certain coach in 2017. Another in 2020. Brian Daboll in 2022. Should you transform a franchise QB, you're well on your way home.

Ben Johnson not only corrected his young quarterback; he's unleashed him. Given a proper system, the QB has been given the chance to display his special ability. Since midseason onward, the Bears rank number four in offensive EPA per play. That's not a brief surge – it's consistent performance. Under his guidance, the quarterback has become increasingly decisive, less reckless, and has willingly submitted to the scheme instead of improvising. It is an attack constructed entirely in the coach's image: a bully-ball ground attack, a heavy dose of play-action passes and a imaginative aerial game that creates wide receiver targets consistently. The QB has capitalized. And when openings haven't been there, he's been able to conjure big plays from nothing.

The coach arrived to Chicago with a clear offensive blueprint. Virtually each gamble – rebuilding the offensive line, highlighting the tight ends, turning Williams into a rhythm thrower – has succeeded. That's rare for a rookie skipper. And it's rarer yet for a coach who walked into the building with the immense hype he did. For two straight offseasons, he was the hottest candidate on the coaching market. However when it comes to selecting a head coach, there are zero guarantees. Remarkably, he has lived up to the hype – and even surpassed them. He's proven not only to be a offensive wizard but the kind of leader that can inject fresh energy into an franchise.

During a typical year, Johnson would be the overwhelming favorite. But the current isn't a normal season!

The area where his case comes slightly into trouble is on the defensive side. The Bears currently sit in the bottom third in defensive success rate. They are relying on turnovers, and turnovers are famously fickle. Defensive minds can stress creating turnovers, but nobody can ensure it. Johnson is on the list because the offense is legitimate. He's not higher because luck is doing an outsized share of the defensive work. If not for a few bounces of the ball, the Bears would be two wins worse off. It's been an exceptional transformation, and the foundation is established for long-term success. However he comes up short in this ranking.

4) The Jacksonville Jaguars Coach, Jacksonville Jaguars, 12-4

The Jaguars' coach is in a similar spot to his counterpart. He's another rookie leader who has engineered a dramatic turnaround. During the stretch run of the year, he has Trevor Lawrence playing the best overall ball of his career. And he's also overseen the remaking of a defensive unit that now sits at number five in the league in EPA per play.

What's more notably, Coen has nailed the off-field aspects, which was not a certainty after his early press conference introduction and some of his offseason decisions.

Coen took over the Jaguars with an exceptionally inexperienced staff. Unlike other coaches, who packed themselves with the perfect coaching mix of new ideas and veteran savvy, Coen trusted first-timers. From the head coach himself to assistants to position coaches, the Jaguars are filled with rookies. That kind of approach is intriguing on paper, but often fails in reality – as past failures are a warning – because everybody is learning a new job on the fly. But he has pulled the entire group and all elements into sync.

Following an initial strong beginning, there was a possibility that the campaign would go off the rails. A midseason collapse had the team stumbling once more. That's typically when coaches panic and change too much. Coen did not. Rather, he streamlined things. The offense stopped pursuing explosive answers and started seeking consistent ones. Coen recentered the attack around his playmakers and the running game, and asked Lawrence to use his mobility more.

The results are evident. The Jaguars have won seven games in a row and will be the conference's number three playoff seed. He receives the tiniest deduction in the rankings because he inherited a talented roster, but he has demonstrated he can get the most out of that talent.

3) The Seattle Seahawks Coach, His Team, 13-3

Each Strong of the Year narrative has a defining decision. For Mike Macdonald, it was his quarterback move.

Parting ways from a incumbent, signing a different signal-caller and partnering him with an innovative play-caller could have derailed the campaign in the early weeks. Instead, it shaped it. By the middle point of the year, the acquisition was an Most Valuable Player front-runner. He has fallen away after that time, slipping to 23rd in efficiency per dropback over the latter part of the schedule, placing him only one place ahead of other QBs.

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